Carter, T. R., Fronzek, S. & Bärlund, I. 2004: FINSKEN: a framework for developing consistent global change scenarios for Finland in the 21st century. Boreal Env. Res. 9: 91–107.

This paper presents the rationale, methodology and results of the three-year FINSKEN project to develop global change scenarios for Finland in the 21st century. Scenario consistency was pursued by relating all scenarios to the same global driving factors of environmental change specified by the IPCC. Scenarios were constructed of socio-economic development, climate, sea level, surface ozone exposure, and sulphur and nitrogen deposition. Both empirical and modelling approaches were used to develop scenarios. Linkages between scenario types were examined to improve scenario integration. Stakeholder dialogue was encouraged through a questionnaire survey, two project seminars, and face-to-face interviews. Two types of future world are described: a consumer-driven "A-world" and a community-minded "B-world". In the A-world there is strong economic growth in Finland accompanied by rapid increases in CO₂ concentration, increased ozone pollution and nitrogen deposition, rapid climate warming, increased precipitation and a possible reversal from falling to rising sea levels. The B-world shows lower economic growth than the A-world, and less rapid increases in CO₂ concentration, temperature and precipitation. After initial increases, ozone pollution and deposition are unlikely to exceed present levels and will probably be much lower by the end of the century. Sea levels in southern Finland either stabilise or continue to fall.

Kaivo-oja, J., Luukkanen, J. & Wilenius, M. 2004: Defining alternative national-scale socio-economic and technological futures up to 2100: SRES scenarios for the case of Finland. Boreal Env. Res. 9: 109–125.

The basic ideas of scenario planning are to provide analyses of potential future trends and the preparations for the changes brought about by those future trends. Thus the FINSKEN project has developed new integrated scenarios that analyse the potential changes in environmental and socio-economic factors for Finland in the 21st century. This article provides long-run socio-economic scenarios for Finland as a contribution to the FINSKEN project. Its aim is to present and analyse future scenarios of Finland's population and economic development, as well as to apply relevant technological and social foresight studies approaches. In this article, four tailored storylines and worlds of future development are presented for Finland. These are related to the scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The storylines are based on expert interviews and material from official and expert documents. In addition, the authors operationalise the four storylines for the Finnish economy using the International Futures (IFs) for Terra world model. Furthermore, empirical results and model runs concerning the economic and social long-run transition paths of the Finnish economy are presented.

Jylhä, K., Tuomenvirta, H. & Ruosteenoja, K. 2004: Climate change projections for Finland during the 21st century. Boreal Env. Res. 9: 127–152.

On the basis of fifteen global model simulations of future climate, using the SRES emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases and aerosols, we have constructed national-scale seasonal and annual climate change scenarios for Finland during the 21st century. In approximate terms, the annual mean temperature is projected to rise by 1–3 °C and the annual mean precipitation by 0%–15% by the 2020s, relative to the baseline period 1961–1990. The corresponding increases by the 2050s are 2–5 °C (temperature) and 0%–30% (precipitation), while by the 2080s they are 2–7 °C and 5%–40%, respectively. The projected temperature trends are markedly stronger than that observed during the 20th century. The ranges in the climate change projections reflect the uncertainties arising from differences in model formulation and in emissions scenarios but are, to some extent, affected by the internal variability of climate as well. Seasonally, the projected precipitation changes and their statistical significance are largest in winter and smallest in summer. On the other hand, the projected rather small summertime warming is at least as statistically significant as the larger warming in the other seasons. Based on a literature review, it seems very likely that changes in mean climate are associated with changes in climate extremes as well.

Johansson, M. M., Kahma, K. K., Boman, H. & Launiainen, J. 2004: Scenarios for sea level on the Finnish coast. Boreal Env. Res. 9: 153–166.

The linkage between global climate change and sea level on the Finnish coast was studied. Scenarios were calculated for the long-term mean sea level in the future, based on the global change scenarios given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The effects of global mean sea level, local land uplift and the water balance of the Baltic Sea were taken into account. The effect of the water balance was estimated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. In most cases the rise in water level is expected to balance the land uplift in the Gulf of Finland, and the past declining trend of the relative sea level is not expected to continue. In the Gulf of Bothnia, the stronger land uplift rate still results in a fall of the relative mean sea level in the future. The uncertainties in the scenarios are large. Scenarios for the intra-annual variability of the sea level were constructed by extrapolating the 20th century trends of increasing variability.

Laurila, T., Tuovinen, J.-P., Tarvainen, V. & Simpson, D. 2004: Trends and scenarios of ground-level ozone concentrations in Finland. Boreal Env. Res. 9: 167–184.

This paper presents an overview of the changes in ground-level ozone and vegetation exposure occurring in Finland, both as observed in the recent decade, and as estimated for the period 1900 to 2100. A trend analysis of ozone and total nitrate concentrations is carried out for the 1989–2001 period. Future and past concentrations are modelled based on chemistry-transport model simulations, the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and emission inventories. Measured summertime ozone shows no decreasing trend despite reported precursor emission reductions. In central Finland, AOT40 (accumulated exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb) over April–September is presently about 6300 ppb h and is estimated to decrease by 570 ppb h as a result of the agreed European emissions reductions by 2010. A similar but opposite change results from the enhanced biogenic emissions of volatile organic compounds due to increased temperatures by 2050. According to the SRES scenarios, the tropospheric background concentrations will increase considerably until about 2050. After this, exposures begin to decline in those scenarios which emphasise new technologies and environmental aspects (8100 ppb h by 2050 in the B1 scenario), but increase monotonically in the A scenarios driven by economic growth.

Syri, S., Fronzek, S., Karvosenoja, N. & Forsius, M. 2004: Sulphur and nitrogen oxides emissions in Europe and deposition in Finland during the 21st century. Boreal Env. Res. 9: 185–198.

This paper describes the development of European scenarios of sulphur and nitrogen oxide emissions and resulting depositions in Finland during the 21st century, based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The work is a part of the FINSKEN project, which aimed at developing consistent long-term scenarios of global change for Finland. The derivation of emission scenarios for European countries and the calculation of environmental loading scenarios based on them presented in this paper is analogous to the estimation of future ground level ozone concentrations within FINSKEN. Global energy scenarios are reflected in changing emission quantities in Europe. Deposition scenarios up to the year 2100 are developed using European and regional deposition models. The impacts of alternative energy futures on emissions and regional air pollution are compared with the plausible impacts of climate change on the transformation and transportation of air pollution, based on the work in the European AIR-CLIM project. The long-term emission scenarios are developed taking into account the recent international emission reduction agreements within the UN/ECE and the EU. Comparisons between IPCC scenarios and European developments indicated that the fossil-intensive IPCC scenarios were pessimistic in their estimates for future sulphur and nitrogen oxides emissions for European regions. In the light of recent air pollution reduction legislation in Europe, increasing sulphur and nitrogen oxides deposition trends for Finland appear unlikely.